Markets in euphoria, corrections are imminent
Markets were on a roll and continued to gain strongly in the four-day week which ended on Thursday. BSESENSEX gained 1,246.89 points or 2.08 per cent to close at 61,305.95 points while NIFTY gained 443.35 points or 2.48 per cent to close at 18,338.55 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 2.74 per cent, 2.69 per cent and 2.65 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 3.34 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.92 per cent. In sectoral indices, BSEPOWER was up 6.82 per cent while BSEIT lost 1.98 per cent. In individual stocks, the top gainer was Tata Motors which gained Rs 114.50 or 29.90per cent to close at Rs 497.45. Tata motors has moved from Rs 275 on 23rd August to Rs 497.45 on 14th October, a gain of Rs 222.45 or 81 per cent in just about 7 weeks.
The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 28 paise or 0.37 per cent to close at Rs 75.26 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained over 900 points in the last two trading sessions and hence managed to end the week with gains of 548.51 points or 1.58 per cent at 34,746.25 points.
In corporate news, the Zee Invesco saga took a new turn with the present MD and CEO the stock exchanges about the largest investor, Invesco proposing a merger with a strategic group in February 2021. This proposal involved the same set of conditions which Sony has proposed in the merger announced by them. This disclosure raises a new set of issues and the ball now rests in the court of Invesco who has to explain whether he is guilty of insider information and whether he was playing the role of an investor of investment banker. Further why the conditions proposed in February and now in September being not different in any way, does he have objections. This issue has become murky and would need mediation as to rights, duties and obligations of a large investor. In the meanwhile, the share would continue to remain in the limelight and await clarity from the matters which are pending with NCLT and the Mumbai High Court.
After a prolonged dispute involving SAT and SEBI, the board of PNB Housing has decided to cancel the proposed preferential issue of shares and warrants to its largest investor and explore alternative fund proposals. The company's decision was felt as unfair as it diluted the minority shareholders interests.
In primary market news, the offer for sale from Aditya Birla Sunlife AMC Limited who had issued shares at Rs 712 listed on the bourses. The share had a lacklustre listing and closed day one at Rs 699.65, a loss of Rs 12.35 or 1.73 per cent. During the week, the share lost further ground to touch a low of Rs 671.80, but recovered ground on Thursday to close at Rs 696.55 down 2.17 per cent.
In other primary market news, a number of issues have received SEBI nod and go ahead for their offerings. In the week ahead they need to hold their roadshow and tap the markets in the week 25th to 29th October. In case this opportunity is lost, then the earliest we could see issues is post Diwali. Keep our fingers crossed for what issues do tap the market.
Results were declared by Infosys, Wipro and HDFC Bank amongst the heavyweight stocks. D Mart also declared results and the sample of companies declaring results, indicates that things have certainly turned around. This would give further confidence for the companies which are yet to declare results in the coming weeks.
On the vaccination front, the number of vaccinations in the country have crossed the 97.61 crore-mark. This number includes both the first and second vaccination.
Markets are in a very strong grip of the bulls. On the positive side we have better results, global markets moving up and liquidity which seems never ending driving the markets. The number of demat accounts have moved up very sharply and crossed the 7 crore-mark. For record purposes this number was at a mere 4.02 crore-mark as of February 2020. The power of the retail investor and HNI's in the country is at times understated and undervalued. This segment is also contributing to the demand for shares in the markets.
The state of the market currently is euphoric and in complete control of bulls. Every person keeps on repeating that every dip is an opportunity to buy and that investors must buy and hold shares. While the sentiment summarises the state of the market, it does not necessarily reflect on the state of the economy or ground reality. We are passing through tough times and there is a large element of overheated exuberance in the market currently. What could happen is a correction of anything between 10-15 per cent which could lead to greater sanity. While this would be welcome, any such action could lead to a large number of new investors losing a significant portion of their wealth.
The strategy would be to continue to book profits at every available opportunity and have some percentage of cash on hand for a rainy day. While we may not have had a rainy day in the last week, such opportunities are available as markets have a sector rotation which keeps on recurring.
Use sharp rallies to book profits and sharp dips to buy. It is imperative to have some amount of cash available to take advantage of opportunities. Be patient as trading opportunities will be available.
By Arun Kejriwal
(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)