Beyond its intransigence, Israel will have to face realities once bombing ends

New Delhi, Dec 17: After 70-odd days of indiscriminate bombing that has left nearly 19,000 Palestinians dead, almost thrice the number injured, and large sections of Gaza a wasteland, Israel is in no mood to stop its military operation, despite growing global opposition and even veiled US admonitions, raising questions on what it actually intends to do.

If its aim is "eradicating" Hamas by the wanton mass killings of Palestinian civilians and widespread destruction of the area, then it may be on course -- though the actual goal of peace and security for it will remain as far elusive as ever.

And there is no guarantee that Israel will succeed in accomplishing the end of the Islamist group, for the idea of resistance is unlikely to perish - and only getting augmented in those who have suffered and lost all they had, especially their kin, and are engulfed in a humanitarian crisis.

However, if Israel's actions are taken as a whole, then the picture changes.

The extensive repression and land grabs in the West Bank, the open espousal of plans for a wholesale expulsion of Palestinians, the angry repudiation of any two-state solution, even as most of the world is embracing the idea, the most far-right government in the country -- as per US President Joe Biden in an uncharacteristic critical comment -- seems set to create chaos in the region in pursuit of its maximalist, fundamentalist goal.

However, it is not only the toxic combination of a devious leader, in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist coalition allies Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit that are the issue, as Biden belatedly flagged. Beyond Netanyahu's own political calculations and effort to forestall his legal problems - his corruption trial has resumed, there is a growing disinclination among Israel, right-wing or centrist, to accord any space for Palestinian political aspirations.

Despite its noble intentions but the tardy and half-hearted implementation, or lack thereof, the Oslo Peace Process seems dead - in the eyes of most Israelis, coupled with the inefficiency, or the deliberate enfeeblement, of the Palestinian Authority.

And if Mahmoud Abbas' Fateh-led PLO is kept out of Gaza, as the Israelis seem determined despite the US' wishes, it will only go on to give space to Hamas - or a Hamas-like organisation, to become the symbol of the Palestinians' political configuration.

The key actor in the whole intractable issue is the US - but it also seems unable or very inclined to rein in Israel, despite some pro-forma criticism or call for restraint, given how cavalierly it has used its veto at least twice in the Security Council since October 7 in favour of Israel, funnelled in more arms and aid, and even despatched a carrier group to the area.

It is this US shield that fuels the Israeli bravado, in announcing peremptorily it would do what it wants, despite global opinion, no matter how overwhelming. This explains why Israel cockily brushed off the most recent UN General Assembly resolution calling for a ceasefire, despite it garnering considerably more votes in favour (153) than the previous attempt (120-121), with most of the previous holdouts in Europe now choosing to abstain (23), while even Australia, Canada, India, and France were in favour.

The 10 that opposed this time around included the likes of Guatemala, Liberia, Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, apart from the US, Austria, Czech Republic, and Israel itself, of course.

The US support is bipartisan - it was the previous Donald Trump Republican regime that accepted Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and recognised the annexation of the Golan Heights. But for the Democrats of Biden, it can lead to collateral damage, as its bending backward in support of Israel since October 7 may hang heavy over it in the elections next year as core support groups of Arab-Americans and progressives are livid and even the probable return of Trump if they sit out may not deter them.

Then, the manoeuvres in the Congress over aid packages to Ukraine and Israel are tied with Republicans determined to wring major concessions on border security and immigration which will further alienate the Democratic support base. Biden and the Democrats may have cause to rue their stand in November 2024.

Coming back to Israel, it would do well to remember that wars do end sometime, and then there is stock-taking. Wars cost money and in the Israeli case, the calling of reservists, who span the entire population, will impact the economy. And once the external threat is quelled - though that is still a moot point, political wranglings will resume.

Above all, even if by some miracle, Israel manages to get rid of its Palestinians, it will still be in the same neighbourhood where it is not making - or keeping - many friends.