Markets at new highs, but primary markets performance makes one jittery
Markets have made new highs on the closing basis and also new intraday highs during the week on the benchmark indices. They gained on three of the five trading days and were flat on the remaining two days. The BSE SENSEX gained 795.40 points or 1.44 per cent to close at 56,124.72 points while NIFTY gained 254.70 points or 1.55 per cent to close at 16,705.20 points.
Broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.59 per cent, 1.79 per cent and 1.81 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 2.54 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 2.04 per cent. The intraday high on BSESENSEX was made on 25th August at 56,198.13 points while the close on Friday was the highest close. The intraday high on NIFTY was at 16,722.05 points made on Friday and so was the close on that day the highest close.
The Indian Rupee gained 70 paise or 0.94 per cent to close at Rs 73.68 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained 335.72 points or 0.96 per cent to close at 35,455.80 points. No new highs either on closing basis or intraday basis were witnessed in the Dow. It recovered from the weakness suffered last week which was to the extent of 395 points.
August futures expired on Thursday and though expiry was a very quiet one, the series finished with significant gains. It gained 858.45 points or 5.44 per cent to close at 16,636.90 points.
Coming to the primary markets, there were three issues which listed last week and all three of them made their debut with losses. The first to list was Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited which lost 6.79 per cent on day one and closed the week with losses of 6.04 per cent. The issue price was Rs 570. The second issue to list was Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited which had issued shares at Rs 353 and lost 1.84 per cent on debut day. The share recovered during the week and managed to close marginally higher with gains of 0.62 per cent. The third and final issue to list was Chemplast Sanmar Limited which debuted with losses of 1.13 per cent, but recovered to close with gains of 0.30 per cent. The issue price was Rs 541.
Of the last eight issues to list since 16th of August, half the issues or four of them are currently trading in the negative, two of them are trading positive with less than 1 per cent gain and two are positive. Contrast this with gains of earlier IPO's which were significantly higher. Very clearly it appears that private equity investors have extracted the last pound of flesh from the markets and left them high and dry because of their greed. Forthcoming issues will fall short of expectations if they continue to tap the markets with such high valuations.
After a lull of a fortnight, two issues are tapping the markets in the coming week. The first of them is speciality chemical manufacturer Ami Organics which is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 200 crore and an offer for sale of 60,59,600 shares. The price band of the issue is Rs 603-610. The issue opens on Wednesday the 1st of September and closes on Friday the 3rd of September. The EPS for the year ended March 2021 was Rs 17.14. The PE or price earning multiple for the company is 35.18-35.59. The NAV of the company as on 31st March is Rs 52.96.
The second issue is from integrated diagnostic chain focused in South India and Kolkata, Vijaya Diagnostics Limited. The issue opens on Wednesday the 1st of September and closes on Friday the 3rd of September. The issue is entirely and offer for sale of 3,56,88,064 shares in a price band of Rs 522-531. The EPS for the year ended March 2021 was Rs 8.26. Based on this EPS, the PE multiple is 63.20-64.29, not cheap by any standard. Just a fortnight ago, Krsnaa Diagnostics with a higher valuation had listed with gains on debut, but is now trading at a discount.
On the Covid-19 front, the world saw 21,67,66,751 patients, 45,08,171 deaths and 19,36,97,396 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 3,26,95,030 patients, 4,37,860 deaths and 3,18,88,642 patients who had recovered. During the week, the world saw 46,03,782 patients, 71,265 deaths and 39,04,305 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 2,70,796 new patients, 3,461 deaths and 2,52,173 patients who had recovered. The cumulative number of people who have been vaccinated now stands at 63.09 crore and during the last week on one single day, the number of vaccinations had crossed 1 crore. While repeating this number every single day may be currently a challenge, the number of vaccinations being done is certainly on the rise.
Coming to the markets, very clearly the benchmark indices are on the rise and we seem to be hitting and making new highs almost every other day. How long and how much further this would go is uncertain and it's time to be extremely cautious. The midcap and Smallcap space which was under pressure for some time saw better traction this week and gives confirmation that we are near the end of the cycle. But how soon is difficult to ascertain.
In such times the strategy would be to sell on rallies, book profits and stay in cash to some extent. Select buying but only in large caps may be done on sharp dips. While performance of companies has improved, it's only in select companies and they are the few handfuls and are the top performing in each sector only. With the primary markets having been sucked dry by greedy private equity investors, even that does not offer an opportunity and certainty of listing gains. In short, it's time to be cautious and become choosy.
By Arun Kejriwal
(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)